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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » Water shortages and flooding as well as temperature rises and droughts due to climate change affecting population movement in Europe and elsewhere.

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1905 / version id: #1905
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
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Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Neil Mundy,

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Water shortages and flooding as well as temperature rises and droughts due to climate change affecting population movement in Europe and elsewhere.

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Water shortages and flooding as well as temperature rises and droughts due to climate change would affect population movement in Europe and elsewhere. Areas for wine growing and other crops may begin to move to other countries such as UK. It would be useful to encourage a pan European strategy on sustainability and business continuity. Other ways to address this include: The development of a range of flood attenuation measures; Making full use of solar energy or hydro power or developing new plant and crop strains to survive and flourish in more hostile climates.

Keywords

population, sustainability, climate change, water shortages, flooding

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Water shortages and flooding as well as temperature rises and droughts due to climate change affecting population movement in Europe and elsewhere. Areas for wine growing and other crops beginning to move to other countries such as UK.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 2: important for a particular world region
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Food security and diet
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Innovation dynamics
Urban and rural dynamics
Sustainability and climate change
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.